stewartwillsher
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- May 15, 2017
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This WAFFLE (possibly DIATRIBE) presents my appraisal on electric-only cars.
[You can tell it is still raining and I have nothing better to do!]
You'd think I'd be anti-leccy cars, eh?
Well I'm not, and even in my dotage I like to see progress.
The problems, as I see it, are that the most enthusiastic and vocal supporters appear to have ostrich syndrome and/or an oversized ego.
The elephants in the room are invisible!
Blimey, I hope I have not upset someone already.
I'll explain my reasoning.
So; my credentials:
Most of my working life I was a pioneer, ranging from the very early days of computing, to large computer systems at around the millennium.
I have also been a car fanatic from as far back as I can remember.
Combining my practicality and realism as a chartered engineer (I was paid to be realistic) with an enthusiasm for all things in motor sport somewhat clashes, but here we go ...
Firstly, my accusation of being ostrich-like comes in three dimensions, all related to ignoring the present or projected reality of the world of people and goods movement -
1) Power supply - The infrastructure to provide charging for a really huge adoption of electric only vehicles is nigh impossible for the foreseeable future.
Even if the generation capacity were possible, and that would take decades to construct power stations or other sources (wind/tide/wave, etc.) the grid would have to be reworked considerably, because the existing topology is primarily designed for the network to focus on cities then major industry, then a few quirks like high use military sites, whereas to accommodate the charging of vehicles would be a far wider and even distribution and take into account whatever facilities might be located at the likes of motorway services and popular destinations.
Anecdotal but honest evidence exists in the form of: reports by the electricity generating and distribution industry admitting that it would not be able to cope with a huge take-up of electric; and a recent dismissal by the post office, following a study, of moving to all-electric powered vehicles in London, for the foreseeable future.
2) Logistics - Whilst there may be some demographic shifts in the coming decades, many car users do not travel only short distances to and from their homes, whether that be regular commuting or less frequent recreational journeys.
There will always be, as far as I can see, the use of public transport, especially to and from major city centres, where the challenge of both access routes and parking, even for electric cars, seem to be impossible to solve.
Difficulty finding a vacant charging point and occupying it for many hours during the day is yet another nail in its coffin; so personal transport in the form of electric cars will always be overshadowed, assuming some problems of cost and reliability improve in the public services are overcome.
For longer journeys, awkward or much luggage and Gran to cope with, the private car wins hands down.
3) Range - The present infrastructure serving the road user is primarily the service stations which, being supplied somewhat primitively by tanker lorries, can and are located wherever profitable and can be reached by said tankers.
Unless unfortunate, or a bit dim, it is totally possible to travel the length and breadth of the United Kingdom (and in most "modern" countries) with just occasional stops, each possibly lasting only a few minutes, to take on fuel for a further few hours of the journey.
Apart from some rather expensive exceptions, there appears to be no electric vehicle capable of doing similar.
Maybe, and it seems extremely unlikely in the near future, the motor industry together with some cooperative organisation of service centres, could devise a fast swap system compatible with many models of cars, and banks of charged batteries available.
The other problem area I highlighted is an intangible emphasis by the major developers of super cars, which I have perhaps unfairly, classed as ego.
We are constantly being shown both concept and production models with a ridiculously high price with equally high status.
Even the tiddlers have a silly price tag for the class of car.
So, the majority of the announcements cannot seriously be targeted at the average motorist, even the modest "city car" format is only being afforded due to high subsidy, which I cannot see lasting.
So how do I, and many other realists, get on-side and behind the ecological movement which, although I cannot see it saving the polar bears, might just improve the environment, especially in congested areas?
Hybrids, is my unequivocal belief in the future for many decades.
Simply put, it is an evolutionary stage which utilises the existing infrastructure for fuel; the range of the vehicle is, if anything, greater than petrol and most diesels, and current and immediate future mass produced models are easily adapted, with not too significant design changes to accommodate a larger battery and all the gubbins needed.
Pricing seems to sit somewhere between polluters and leccies.
I think for electric motorisation to be successful there has to be breakthroughs in implementing two major aspects - energy and storage.
Energy use on the road really is when accelerating or on an incline, going upwards.
The rest of the time very little is needed to maintain a constant speed on the level, headwinds excepted.
Formula One cars now demonstrate the ways in which, for the time not accelerating or climbing, a huge amount of otherwise wasted energy can be harvested.
If all the F1 technology were applied to road cars (yes it would cost a fortune, I know) the oil companies would be crying into their spreadsheets.
Storage of electricity has a long way to go to produce a "battery" which combines lower weight, less space, lower cost, and faster charge.
This aspect is certainly holding back the feasible changeover for the motor manufacturers.
First hand experience - My daughter has a Toyota Yaris Hybrid.
It is the first and only hybrid I have driven and on balance I like it.
Initially, I found it a bit spooky pulling away silently; I wanted to put lolly sticks in the wheel spokes like I did as a kid to make my bike sound like it had a motor.
Economy is amazing and performance surprisingly quick, and very nippy in traffic.
It also benefits from not being subjected to the occasional limited access into Madrid where, if the pollution levels are high, they have an odd day / even day scheme.
Anecdote alert - and now to finish on an anecdote, related to moving to electric powered transport, from a period some decades (possibly over sixty years ago):
In East London, in the immediate post WWII era, many tradesmen used horse and cart - milkmen, coalmen, bakers, greengrocers, rag and bone men, etc.
To reduce the cost of stabling and animal husbandry, the larger companies, then also the small ones, changed to other more modern forms of power.
Many adopted small vans, but some went for electric.
Most notable was the milkman's cart.
Those I saw, as a kid, were three wheel and driven using an odd handle in the cab, which when pushed down made the milk float jerk forward, and on release the float jerked to a halt.
The milkmen complained bitterly at their new fangled vehicles and quirky behaviour.
It was a simple, but retrograde, change of control.
How so? - the old horse got to know the round and once the milkman started delivering, he just walked back and fro with full and empty bottles, and with a click of his tongue or a word or two that the horse understood, the horse moved on unaided sufficient for the next delivery point.
The milkman only really took the reins from dairy to start of his round and then at the end, back to the dairy.
With the electric float he was getting in and out and "driving" his mechanised steed every few yards.
He also got much grief from his manager if he forgot to plug the bloody thing in at night, whereas the horse would most likely let it be known if there was not some feedstuff available.
Oh, and the keen rose growers in our street lost out on a ready supply of manure - you should have seen them rushing out with bucket and spade after the milkie passed by!
Progress has to be assimilated and embraced!
And, it's still blowing and raining!
[You can tell it is still raining and I have nothing better to do!]
You'd think I'd be anti-leccy cars, eh?
Well I'm not, and even in my dotage I like to see progress.
The problems, as I see it, are that the most enthusiastic and vocal supporters appear to have ostrich syndrome and/or an oversized ego.
The elephants in the room are invisible!
Blimey, I hope I have not upset someone already.
I'll explain my reasoning.
So; my credentials:
Most of my working life I was a pioneer, ranging from the very early days of computing, to large computer systems at around the millennium.
I have also been a car fanatic from as far back as I can remember.
Combining my practicality and realism as a chartered engineer (I was paid to be realistic) with an enthusiasm for all things in motor sport somewhat clashes, but here we go ...
Firstly, my accusation of being ostrich-like comes in three dimensions, all related to ignoring the present or projected reality of the world of people and goods movement -
1) Power supply - The infrastructure to provide charging for a really huge adoption of electric only vehicles is nigh impossible for the foreseeable future.
Even if the generation capacity were possible, and that would take decades to construct power stations or other sources (wind/tide/wave, etc.) the grid would have to be reworked considerably, because the existing topology is primarily designed for the network to focus on cities then major industry, then a few quirks like high use military sites, whereas to accommodate the charging of vehicles would be a far wider and even distribution and take into account whatever facilities might be located at the likes of motorway services and popular destinations.
Anecdotal but honest evidence exists in the form of: reports by the electricity generating and distribution industry admitting that it would not be able to cope with a huge take-up of electric; and a recent dismissal by the post office, following a study, of moving to all-electric powered vehicles in London, for the foreseeable future.
2) Logistics - Whilst there may be some demographic shifts in the coming decades, many car users do not travel only short distances to and from their homes, whether that be regular commuting or less frequent recreational journeys.
There will always be, as far as I can see, the use of public transport, especially to and from major city centres, where the challenge of both access routes and parking, even for electric cars, seem to be impossible to solve.
Difficulty finding a vacant charging point and occupying it for many hours during the day is yet another nail in its coffin; so personal transport in the form of electric cars will always be overshadowed, assuming some problems of cost and reliability improve in the public services are overcome.
For longer journeys, awkward or much luggage and Gran to cope with, the private car wins hands down.
3) Range - The present infrastructure serving the road user is primarily the service stations which, being supplied somewhat primitively by tanker lorries, can and are located wherever profitable and can be reached by said tankers.
Unless unfortunate, or a bit dim, it is totally possible to travel the length and breadth of the United Kingdom (and in most "modern" countries) with just occasional stops, each possibly lasting only a few minutes, to take on fuel for a further few hours of the journey.
Apart from some rather expensive exceptions, there appears to be no electric vehicle capable of doing similar.
Maybe, and it seems extremely unlikely in the near future, the motor industry together with some cooperative organisation of service centres, could devise a fast swap system compatible with many models of cars, and banks of charged batteries available.
The other problem area I highlighted is an intangible emphasis by the major developers of super cars, which I have perhaps unfairly, classed as ego.
We are constantly being shown both concept and production models with a ridiculously high price with equally high status.
Even the tiddlers have a silly price tag for the class of car.
So, the majority of the announcements cannot seriously be targeted at the average motorist, even the modest "city car" format is only being afforded due to high subsidy, which I cannot see lasting.
So how do I, and many other realists, get on-side and behind the ecological movement which, although I cannot see it saving the polar bears, might just improve the environment, especially in congested areas?
Hybrids, is my unequivocal belief in the future for many decades.
Simply put, it is an evolutionary stage which utilises the existing infrastructure for fuel; the range of the vehicle is, if anything, greater than petrol and most diesels, and current and immediate future mass produced models are easily adapted, with not too significant design changes to accommodate a larger battery and all the gubbins needed.
Pricing seems to sit somewhere between polluters and leccies.
I think for electric motorisation to be successful there has to be breakthroughs in implementing two major aspects - energy and storage.
Energy use on the road really is when accelerating or on an incline, going upwards.
The rest of the time very little is needed to maintain a constant speed on the level, headwinds excepted.
Formula One cars now demonstrate the ways in which, for the time not accelerating or climbing, a huge amount of otherwise wasted energy can be harvested.
If all the F1 technology were applied to road cars (yes it would cost a fortune, I know) the oil companies would be crying into their spreadsheets.
Storage of electricity has a long way to go to produce a "battery" which combines lower weight, less space, lower cost, and faster charge.
This aspect is certainly holding back the feasible changeover for the motor manufacturers.
First hand experience - My daughter has a Toyota Yaris Hybrid.
It is the first and only hybrid I have driven and on balance I like it.
Initially, I found it a bit spooky pulling away silently; I wanted to put lolly sticks in the wheel spokes like I did as a kid to make my bike sound like it had a motor.
Economy is amazing and performance surprisingly quick, and very nippy in traffic.
It also benefits from not being subjected to the occasional limited access into Madrid where, if the pollution levels are high, they have an odd day / even day scheme.
Anecdote alert - and now to finish on an anecdote, related to moving to electric powered transport, from a period some decades (possibly over sixty years ago):
In East London, in the immediate post WWII era, many tradesmen used horse and cart - milkmen, coalmen, bakers, greengrocers, rag and bone men, etc.
To reduce the cost of stabling and animal husbandry, the larger companies, then also the small ones, changed to other more modern forms of power.
Many adopted small vans, but some went for electric.
Most notable was the milkman's cart.
Those I saw, as a kid, were three wheel and driven using an odd handle in the cab, which when pushed down made the milk float jerk forward, and on release the float jerked to a halt.
The milkmen complained bitterly at their new fangled vehicles and quirky behaviour.
It was a simple, but retrograde, change of control.
How so? - the old horse got to know the round and once the milkman started delivering, he just walked back and fro with full and empty bottles, and with a click of his tongue or a word or two that the horse understood, the horse moved on unaided sufficient for the next delivery point.
The milkman only really took the reins from dairy to start of his round and then at the end, back to the dairy.
With the electric float he was getting in and out and "driving" his mechanised steed every few yards.
He also got much grief from his manager if he forgot to plug the bloody thing in at night, whereas the horse would most likely let it be known if there was not some feedstuff available.
Oh, and the keen rose growers in our street lost out on a ready supply of manure - you should have seen them rushing out with bucket and spade after the milkie passed by!
Progress has to be assimilated and embraced!
And, it's still blowing and raining!
